Electric cars could cause oil prices to tank in the next decade

DECLINE EXPECTED — A new study suggests demand for coal will fall after 2020 coinciding with an expected decline in costs to produce solar power.- Casey Junkins

Global fossil fuel demand set to fall from 2020, three centuries after the dawn of the Industrial Revolution

The report explores how plausible advances in solar panels and electric vehicles could affect future fossil fuel demand alongside efforts to reach worldwide climate targets.

According to the authors of the research, over a decade, solar and electric vehicles could capture 10 percent of the market share now belonging to fossil fuels.

To put it in perspective, a 10 percent market share loss was enough to cause the recent collapse in the USA coal industry, while the five major utilities in Europe collectively lost about $100 billion between 2008 and 2013 because they didn't ready themselves for the 8 percent growth in renewable energy.

The report offered a warning to fossil fuel companies like ExxonMobil, whose former CEO, Rex Tillerson, is now Trump's secretary of state, that they were underestimating the advances in low-carbon energy technologies and might lose billions due to this miscalculation.

Emerging technology, such as printable solar photovoltaics which generate electricity, could bring down costs and boost take-up even more than now predicted.

"Electric vehicles and solar power are game-changers that the fossil fuel industry consistently underestimates", Carbon Tracker senior researcher Luke Sussams said.

"Further innovation could make our scenarios look conservative in five years' time, in which case the demand misread by companies will have been amplified even more", Sussams said.

"There are a number of low-carbon technologies about to achieve critical mass decades before some companies expect", he explained.

The study also notes that solar photovoltaic power could supply 23 percent of global power generation by 2040, and as much as 29 percent by 2050.

BP's 2017 energy outlook predicts electric vehicles will account for only 6 percent of the road transport market in 2035 - but the report suggests it will be 35 percent, rising to more than two-thirds by 2050. The report finds 16mbd of oil demand displaced by 2040 and 25mbd by 2050.

One industry estimate puts the total contribution from all renewables to global power generation at just 11 per cent by 2040. Oil demand could be flat from 2020 to 2030 then fall steadily to 2050.

"Most low-carbon pathways analysis considers what needs to be done to meet ambitious climate targets like 2°C".

Solar panel costs have fallen 85% in the past seven years and vehicle battery costs 73%.

"It's time we fully understood the implications of these technologies' relentless ride down the cost curve".

The cost of EVs is already falling faster than previous forecasts and they could reach parity with conventional internal combustion vehicles by 2020, eventually saturating the passenger vehicle market by 2050, the report said.

Electric vehicles could account for over a third of road transport by 2035 says the new report.

In addition, EVs are now growing 60 percent year-on-year and there are already more than a million on the roads. This could phase out coal completely and leave natural gas with just 1 percent of market share.

Riccardo Tisci Exits Givenchy After 12 Years
Bruce Springsteen Found the Perfect Way to Troll Trump's Disastrous Au